It seems the world is going to be hoodwinked again by those pushing the global warming scam, this time for another 30 years.
And the most discouraging thing about it is: the sane people, those who know CO2 isn’t a significant cause of planetary warming, are showing all the signs of being suckered by the deception yet again.
"Uncertainty in the sign of projected changes in climate extremes over the coming two to three decades is relatively large because climate change signals are expected to be relatively small compared to natural climate variability".
That, of course, makes a complete mockery of the entire global warming theory. Remember that the theory’s only “evidence” is the computer models, which, it is said, cannot account for the late 20th century warming by the mere effects of natural climate variability. And yet, now, after 13 years of flat temperatures, they predict that we could be in for another 30 — 43 years in all! of flat temperatures due to natural variability masking the rise due to CO2-induced warming. Wow! CO2 must be a pretty poor warming agent if, as anthropogenic CO2 emissions rage ahead, temperatures can remain flat for 43 years.
The truth, of course, is that all this makes no sense whatever. If natural variability can cause 43 years of flat temps while CO2 races upwards, then it could also have caused the late 20th century warming without any help from CO2.
This is all obvious, of course, but it leads the skeptics into a trap, into which they seem to be falling like lambs to the slaughter. “Has the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change finally gotten the issue of extreme events right?” Pielke writes. And later: “But before declaring victory, it is worth noting Black's expectation that governments will be pressing for different conclusions because money is at stake... The good news about the leaked document is that efforts to alter the text will be noticed. Based on Black's report, it seems that the IPCC has at long last done the right thing on extreme events and climate change. It will be most interesting to see the reactions. ” (Emphasis mine.)
The commenters seem equally deceived. One writes “Finally, people acknowledge what they know, don't know, and, perhaps, are incapable of knowing.” Another adds “There will of course be pressure to reword the report. One of the side-effects of the campaign for CO2 alarmism conducted by the IPCC is further to poison relationships between rich and poor countries. The extremists of the environmental 'movement' do not care much for either side as long as they suffer and diminish in wealth and numbers as quickly as possible. The draft report as it stands is a very welcome counter to such extremism, but many horses have bolted from the stable by now and I suppose it will take a lot more than a more honest report to get them back.”
Do you see the problem that I see?
It’s simple really. All that is happening is that the IPCC is bullet-proofing itself against disproof of its theory when, as has now become reasonably clear, a prolonged hiatus, or even cooling period, is likely to hit.
The thing to remember is that the predictions of cooling come, not from some unexplained “natural climate variability”, but from very detailed alternative theories of the working of the climate system, such as Svensmark’s cosmic ray theory. After all, if it were just some random thing like the way the ball falls in a pinball machine, why on Earth would the IPCC expect—and be able to estimate the length of—a warming hiatus?
There is very little alternative except to conclude that the warmist theory is wrong. On that Roger Pielke Jr and other commenters are correct. But this is nothing to do with logic. Logic has made the theory untenable long before now. The lack of a tropospheric hotspot, all on its own, disproves the theory conclusively. But you can cry that to the wind forever without denting the massively funded juggernaut of ‘climate change’.
The truth is that regardless of facts, regardless of logic, for the next 30 years, the theory has now been immunised against disproof. “We predicted this cold spot,” they can say, as elderly people even in wealthy countries like the UK die of cold from being unable to afford heating their homes. It is the exact opposite of genuine science, but just see if you can make headway against it.
This is a time for the entire rational scientific world (meaning true scientists, not climate “scientists” and their hangers-on) to move into a new gear and shine a light on the fraudulence of the entire ‘climate change’ religion. It is sad, but unfortunately this isn’t a debate between two honest but different opinions. It would be great if it were. But one side makes videos salivating about blowing up children who don’t believe in AGW and splattering their bloody remnants over their classmates in school. Representatives like Australia’s ex-prime minster Rudd unleash the winds of hate against skeptics. National newspapers publish ‘opinions’ calling for skeptics to be tied up in the harbour to be drowned at high tide. That is the bloody and violent signature of the climate change false religion. The ‘hiatus’ due to ‘natural variability’ is just the latest attempt to prevent scientific testing from demolishing the whole sorry edifice.
This is not a discussion between two groups of honest scientists. It is an attack upon real science and, indeed, upon the whole world, by a godless false religion. It has no conscience. All it attempts to do is produce fifteen-minute publicity grabs to persuade the gullible. Those of us who see through it have to work tirelessly to expose the whole sorry edifice to the light of truth. We must not make the mistake of relaxing while a new sneaky trick is pulled upon the world.